降雨对城市路网交通状态的影响机理

作者：王殿海 黄莉莎 曾佳棋 蔡正义

The Impact Mechanism of Rainfall on the Traffic Condition of Urban Road Networks

Authors: Wang Dianhai, Huang Lisha, Zeng Jiaqi, Cai Zhengyi

摘要： 城市道路在雨天易发生交通拥堵是人们的普遍感受，然而降雨是否必然引发拥堵、这一感受是否属实？本文从理论出发，结合实际数据进行解释。通过分析认为雨天驾驶员倾向于保守驾驶，使饱和车头时距增大。基于该假设，建立了受信号影响的城市道路交通流模型，并对不同降雨场景下平均行程速度的变化情况进行理论分析。利用视频数据统计得到的各降雨等级下的饱和车头时距，验证了降雨会使饱和车头时距增大的假设。选取杭州市萧山区局部路网数据进行数值模拟，并基于VISSIM路网仿真对构建的模型进行了验证。结果表明：降雨对路网平均速度的影响是负面的。在交通需求较小时，降雨的负面影响几乎可以忽略；随着降雨等级提高，交通需求大的路网更容易出现过饱和，路网平均行程速度将出现陡降，交通状态迅速恶化。

关键词：交通工程；降雨；城市道路交通流模型；城市路网交通状态；饱和车头时距

Abstract: It is a common feeling that urban roads are prone to traffic congestion in rainy days. However, is it true that rainfall inevitably leads to congestion? This paper starts from the theory, combined with the actual statistics. This analysis shows that drivers tend to drive conservatively in rainy days, which increases the saturation headway. Based on this hypothesis, the traffic flow model of urban road affected by signals is established, and the changes of average travel speed under different rainfall levels are analyzed theoretically. The hypothesis that rainfall increases the saturated headway of vehicles at different rainfall levels is validated by means of using data of videos. It also selects local road network data from Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City for numerical simulation, and validates the constructed model based on VISSIM traffic network simulation. The results show that the influence of rainfall at the average speed of vehicle road network is negative. When traffic demand is low, the negative impact of rainfall is almost negligible. With the increase of rainfall level, the road network with large traffic demand is more prone to oversaturation, and the average speed of road network will drop sharply, resulting in rapid deterioration of traffic condition.

Keywords: Traffic engineering; Rainfall; Traffic flow model of urban road network; Traffic status of urban road network; Saturation headway

来源：《交通运输系统工程与信息》

发表时间：2023年3月2日

检索：褚梦迪

翻译：殷嘉怡

一审：程子馨

二审：彭莉

三审：罗玲娟

上传发布：姜浩