An evaluation of the economic, social, and ecological

risks of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction and policy suggestions

中蒙俄高铁建设的经济、社会、生态风险评估及对策

DONG Suocheng, YANG Yang, LI Fujia, CHENG Hao, LI Jingnan,

BILGAEV Alexey, LI Zehong, LI Yu

Abstract

The construction of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways is a strategic move to promote transportation infrastructure inter-connectivity between these countries, which will accelerate the implementation of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor. However, well-planned China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways demand accurately identifying construction risks, scientifically evaluating risk levels, and mapping the spatial distribution of these risks. Therefore, this study established the integrated risk evaluation model (IREM) to scientifically evaluate the economic, social, and ecological risks of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction and determine their magnitude and spatial distribution pattern. Based on this analysis, we propose designs for the east and west China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways and policy suggestions to mitigate construction risks. Suggestions include developing innovative cooperation of the "high-speed railway for resources and market", strengthening communication and technology dissemination, and applying innovative engineering techniques and setting buffers; establishing collaborative prevention and control systems to mitigate the three major ecological risks in the China, Mongolia, and Russia trans-border areas; and promoting economic integration by improving strategic coordination. In summary, this study provides scientific support for designing the China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways minimizing construction risks.

摘要

中蒙俄跨境高铁的建设是促进有关各国改善交通基础设施条件，促进互联互通的战略举措，将加速中蒙俄经济走廊的建设。与此同时，跨境高铁的建设要求我们精准识别建设风险，科学评估风险等级，了解风险的空间分布情况。为此，本研究建立了风险综合评估模型，用于评估中蒙俄跨境高铁带来的经济、社会与生态风险，确定风险等级和风险空间分布情况。基于此项分析，我们提议从东西向设计中蒙俄跨境铁路，并提供政策建议减轻建设风险。这些建议包括：发展创新型合作，让高铁在资源和市场领域更好发挥作用；加强沟通，促进科技交流；运用新型工程技术，设置缓冲器；建立联防机制，缓解中蒙俄边境三大主要生态风险；加强战略合作，促进中蒙俄经济一体化。总的来说，本项研究为中蒙俄铁路建设风险最小化提供了科学支撑。

Keywords: China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction; risk evaluation; designs of high-speed rail-ways; policy suggestions; IREM

来源：Journal of Geographical Sciences

发表时间：2018年5月24日

检索：李懿

翻译：缪辉

一审：敖雄薇

二审：彭莉

三审：罗玲娟

上传发布：姜浩

（以下是论文第一页）

1 Introduction

As one of the six core corridors planned in “the Belt and Road (B&R) Initiative”, theChina-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor fits within the “Eurasian Economic Union” proposed by Russia and the “Prairie Road Program” proposed by Mongolia. This corridor is a key strategic area that China, Mongolia, and Russia are all dedicated to developing. In the “Plan for Construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor”, which was signed in 2016 by the governments of the three countries, “promoting the development and inter-connectivity of transportation infrastructure” is prioritized as a key cooperation area among the three countries. Furthermore, the plan has an explicit directive to “construct and develop international land transportation corridor and improve potentiality of railway and road transportation capacity” (NDRC, 2016). As one of the most important achievements of modern science and technology, high-speed railways are characterized by rapid transport, large capacity, high economic efficiency, low energy consumption, and reduced environ-mental pollution (Okada, 1994; Xu et al., 2011, Ryder, 2012), which makes it the optimum selection for construction in the China-Mongolia-Russia international land transportation corridor. High-speed railways will both enhance communication and cooperation among the three countries, and remold the spatial distribution patterns of economies, cities, and tourism in areas along the railway corridor and promote their development (Xu et al., 2011; Yu, 2015; Wang, 2014; Wang et al., 2015a, 2015b). Therefore, constructing China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railways will accelerate construction of the China-Mongolia Russia Economic Corridor, which will have a significant impact on implementing the B&R Initiative. However, high-speed railway construction costs a huge investment and is often challenged by local economic, social, and ecological conditions. Furthermore, there are large differences in economic development, population scale and distribution, social system and development mode, and ecological environment in the trans-border areas of China, Mongolia, and Russia. While constructing high-speed railways in this corridor will have significant effects on local economic, social, and ecological conditions, there are multi-potential risks due to these above conditions. Therefore, accurately identifying the primary construction risks and scientifically evaluating their magnitude and spatial distribution are required to support the de-signs and mitigate risk during construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed rail-ways. At present, research on high-speed railways has primarily focused on the following aspects: (1) High-speed railways for improving regional traffic accessibility (Givoni, 2006; Jiang, 2010; Chen, 2012; Preston, 2012; Shaw et al., 2014; Zhong et al., 2015; Mu, 2015; Jiang et al., 2016). Chen (2012)  studied the development of high-speed railway in China, and dis-covered that high-speed railway results in dramatic time-space shrinkage and mobility be-tween cities. Shaw et al. (2014) analyzed changes in travel accessibility to cities in China caused by high-speed railways, and found that they improved travel time at the national scale. Preston (2012) observed high-speed railway operation in Britain, and arrived at that the benefit/cost ratio is greater than one, and the timesaving benefit is the largest among the many benefits. (2) High-speed railways for remolding the economic, social, and urban spatial distribu-tions and promoting regional development (Okada, 1994; EC, 1992, 1994; Xu et al., 2011; Ryder, 2012; Yu, 2015). The Treaty on the European Union (EC, 1992) and White Paper on Growth, Competitiveness and Employment (EC, 1994) both claim that the development of the Trans-Europe Network is an essential element for both promoting economic develop-ment and improving the economic and social cohesion of the European Union. Okada (1994)