轨道新线对公共交通乘客吸引力影响因素研究

Study on the Factors Influencing the Attractiveness of New Rail Lines to Public Transportation Riders

温慧敏 朱珊 孙建平 张建波 张晶晶

Wen Huimin  Zhu Shan  Sun Jianping  Zhang Jianbo  Zhang Jingjing

摘要：研究轨道交通新线对公共交通乘客的吸引力影响因素，有助于理解公共交通乘客的出行方式选择行为，预判新线开通带来的客流变化，以提高公共交通运力投放效率和整体服务水平。本文利用公交智能卡数据构建了量化评价轨道新线吸引力影响因素的分类与回归树（classification and regression tree， CART）模型，实证分析了轨道新线吸引力与乘客特征间的相关关系。首先，从长时期的刷卡记录中挖掘乘客类型、出行习惯、出行特征和职住地轨道可达性等乘客特征指标；其次，以开通后的乘车次数表征新线吸引力，基于上述特征指标构建了整体精度为82.6%的轨道新线吸引力影响因素解析决策树模型；最后，依据决策树结构和指标权重量化解析了影响轨道新线对公共交通乘客吸引力的关键因素。分析结果表明，居住地距新线距离是影响新线对其吸引力最重要的因素，其次是居住地的轨道可达性水平及乘客联乘出行比例；而出行时间、出行距离等因素对轨道新线吸引力的影响较小。此外，轨道新线对老年乘客的吸引力与其他群体存在明显差异。研究成果对优化公共交通规划与运营组织具有重要指导意义。

Abstract: The study of the factors influencing the attractiveness of new rail transit lines to public transportation passengers is useful to comprehend the travel mode choice behaviors of public transportation passengers and to anticipate the changes in passenger flow brought about by the opening of new lines, so as to improve the efficiency of public transportation capacity placement and the overall level of service. This paper constructs a classification and regression tree (CART) for quantitatively evaluating the factors influencing the attractiveness of a new rail line using transit smart card data, and empirically analyzes the correlation between the attractiveness of a new rail line and passenger characteristics. First, passenger characteristic metrics such as passenger type, travel habits, travel characteristics, and rail accessibility at work and residence are extracted from the card swipe records over a long period of time; Second, the attractiveness of the new line is represented by the number of rides after the opening of the new line, and based on the above characteristic indexes, an analytical decision tree model of the factors influencing the attractiveness of the new rail line is constructed with an overall accuracy of 82.6%; At last, the critical factors affecting the attractiveness of new rail lines to public transportation riders are quantitatively analyzed based on the decision tree structure and indicator weights. The results of the analysis show that the distance of the residence from the new line is the most significant factor influencing the attractiveness of the new line to them, followed by the level of rail accessibility of the residence and the proportion of passenger intermodal trips; whereas the factors of travel time and travel distance have a lesser impact on the attractiveness of the new rail line. In addition, the attractiveness of new rail lines for elderly passengers is significantly different from other groups. The research results are of great significance in the optimization and organization of public transportation.

关键词：城市交通; 客流吸引力; 决策树; 城市轨道交通; 公共交通; 智能卡;

Keywords: urban transportation; passenger attraction; decision tree; urban rail transit; public transportation; smart cards

来源：交通运输系统工程与信息

Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

发表时间：2023年7月10日

检索：褚梦迪

翻译：殷嘉怡

一审：程子馨

二审：彭莉

三审：罗玲娟

上传发布：姜浩