Economic Impacts of the Suez Canal Expansion on Global Maritime Trade

Maria Rodriguez, James Wilson

苏伊士运河扩建对全球海上贸易的经济影响

玛丽亚·罗德里格斯，詹姆斯·威尔逊

Abstract: This study quantifies the economic ripple effects of the 2015 Suez Canal expansion using a dynamic econometric model. By analyzing 10 million shipping records (2010–2020), we found that canal transit time decreased by 28%, reducing Asia-Europe supply chain costs by $2.3 billion annually. The expansion enabled megaships (24,000+ TEU) to pass, increasing daily cargo volume by 52%. However, it intensified regional disparities: Mediterranean ports like Piraeus gained 18% cargo growth, while traditional hubs such as Rotterdam faced competitive pressure. Carbon emissions per container fell 12% due to optimized routes, yet total emissions rose 5.4% from increased traffic. We recommend adaptive port infrastructure investments to harness canal-induced trade redistribution.

Keywords: Suez Canal Expansion; maritime trade; Econometric Modeling; supply chain efficiency; carbon emissions

摘要：本研究运用动态计量经济学模型，量化了2015年苏伊士运河扩建所带来的经济连锁效应。通过对2010年至2020年间1000万条航运记录的分析，我们发现运河通行时间缩短了28%，每年为亚欧供应链节省成本达23亿美元。此次扩建使得超大型船舶（载箱量24,000+标准箱）能够通行，每日货运量因此增加了52%。然而，扩建也加剧了地区差异：比雷埃夫斯等地中海港口的货运量增长了18%，而鹿特丹等传统枢纽港口则面临竞争压力。由于航线优化，每个集装箱的碳排放量降低了12%，但由于交通流量增加，总排放量却上升了5.4%。我们建议投资适应性港口基础设施，以充分利用运河扩建带来的贸易重新分配机遇。

关键词：苏伊士运河扩建；海运贸易；计量经济学建模；供应链效率；碳排放

来源：

Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment(SCI一区, IF: 7.6)

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/375200000_Economic_Impacts_Suez_Canal_Expansion

发表时间：2023-8-12

检索：王烨

翻译：王婷

一审：严乐帆

二审：彭莉

三审：罗玲娟

上传发布：姜浩