基于风险度量的多交通方式协同应急救援方案优化

Optimization of Multi-Modal Collaborative Emergency Response Plan Based on Risk Metrics

摘要

Abstract

近年来我国重大交通工程建设中的突发事件频繁发生，且呈现救援条件复杂，影响后果不确定等特征，因此研究多交通方式协同下的应急救援路径优化具有重要意义。本文以复杂地质环境下重大交通工程建设中的突发事件为背景，基于条件风险价值衡量由于救援时间导致的伤亡损失后果，采取多种交通方式协同进行救援。考虑到伤员数量和物资需求的不确定性以及救援资源分配的公平性，建立了最小化总风险和总成本的双目标鲁棒优化模型，用以决策多种交通方式的协同救援路径，以及物资运输和伤员转移方案。本文基于鲁棒对等转化设计了相应的求解算法，并使用两个路网算例进行了验证。研究结果表明，救援路径总风险与总成本之间存在着权衡关系，采用多交通方式协同救援可有效降低伤亡风险；随着伤员数量和物资需求不确定程度的增加，总风险和总成本均呈现增加趋势，管理者可依据其对风险的偏好程度决策不同不确定性水平下的最优救援方案；此外，与不考虑公平性约束相比，受灾单元物资需求和伤员转移需求满足率的标准差分别降低了12.9和12.6，平均满足率分别提高了7.5%和8.4%，有效保障了救援资源分配的合理性和公平性。本文所建立的鲁棒模型可有效处理不确定条件下的应急响应问题，帮助决策者制定合理的路径方案，以及物资运输和伤员转移方案。

In recent years, emergencies in the construction of major traffic projects in China have occurred frequently, and present complex rescue conditions and uncertain consequences, so it is important to study the optimization of emergency rescue paths under the coordination of multiple modes of transportation. In this paper, we take the emergencies in major traffic engineering construction in complex geological environment as the background, and adopt multiple transportation modes for rescue based on the risk value of conditions to measure the consequences of casualty loss due to rescue time. Considering the uncertainty of the number of casualties and material requirements as well as the fairness of rescue resource allocation, a dual-objective Robust Optimization model minimizing the total risk and total cost is established to decide the coordinated rescue path of multiple transportation modes as well as the material transportation and casualty transfer scheme. The corresponding solution algorithm is designed based on the robust peer-to-peer transformation and validated using two road network examples. The results show that there is a trade-off between the total risk and the total cost of the rescue path, and the coordinated rescue by multiple transportation modes can effectively reduce the risk of casualties; the total risk and the total cost both tend to increase as the uncertainty of the number of casualties and the material demand increases, and the managers can decide the optimal rescue solution under different uncertainty levels based on their preference for risk; in addition, compared with no fairness constraint In addition, the standard deviations of the satisfaction rates of material requirements and casualty transfer requirements of the affected units are reduced by 12.9 and 12.6, respectively, and the average satisfaction rates are increased by 7.5% and 8.4%, respectively, which effectively ensures the rationality and fairness of rescue resource allocation. The robust model developed in this paper can effectively deal with the emergency response problem under uncertain conditions and help decision makers to develop reasonable route plans, as well as material transportation and casualty transfer plans.

关键词：应急响应；车辆路径问题；条件风险价值；鲁棒优化；多交通方式协同

Keywords:emergency response;vehicle routing problem;conditional value at risk; Robust Optimization; multi-modal collaboration

来源：基于风险度量的多交通方式协同应急救援方案优化 - 中国知网 (cnki.net)

发表时间：2023年01月20日

检索：敖雄薇

  翻译：欧阳妤姗 一审：李懿

二审：彭莉

三审：罗玲娟

上传发布：姜浩